The world is a crazy place. We live in an era of unprecedented technological development, and one thing is for sure: the future is full of opportunities to do good. In this post, I hope to outline the current state of Artificial Intelligence, how the progress is accelerating, and what it means for us individuals looking to change our lives. Those who understand how to leverage AI will have a huge competitive advantage. Hopefully, this post can help you secure your advantage.
The future is already here, it is just unevenly distributed.
Acceleration
ChatGPT's release in 2022 undoubtedly changed the fate of humanity. All of the signs were already there, but ChatGPT showed that AGI is closer than we thought. This release triggered an intense race toward artificial general intelligence. Tech giants poured hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, racing to develop the smartest models in the world. Now, just one month into 2025, DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, released R1 – matching OpenAI's latest models while using 45x less compute. By making it open source, they've changed the economics of AI development. These efficiency gains will ripple through the industry, reducing the computational barriers to building sophisticated AI systems.
The timing matters. While large companies pursue AGI, a parallel opportunity has emerged for building practical AI products today.
Two Key Shifts
2025 brings two significant changes to AI development:
First, AI models are achieving remarkable capabilities while becoming more affordable. What once required massive data centers can now run on consumer hardware. DeepSeek demonstrated that state-of-the-art performance comes from better algorithms, not just more compute.
Second, AI is transforming software development itself. Modern AI coding assistants can build entire applications from high-level descriptions. This shift in development velocity means individuals can now complete projects that previously required teams.
These forces converge to create unique opportunities. Powerful AI becomes more accessible while development accelerates. Both trends multiply each other's impact.
The opportunity is clear: while large companies compete on model development, two factors create space for individual builders. AI capabilities are becoming affordable through algorithmic breakthroughs, and these same tools dramatically accelerate development. Tasks that recently required significant teams and capital can now be accomplished by individuals. With these new tools, the barriers have been lowered.
Economics of Scale
DeepSeek's R1 represents a shift in AI development philosophy: emphasizing algorithmic efficiency over computational scale.
Their core innovation uses a Mixture-of-Experts approach: the model contains 671 billion parameters but activates only 37 billion for any given task. This selective activation maintains capability while reducing computational needs.
R1's use of pure reinforcement learning sets it apart. AI learns through either imitation or trial-and-error. While most models rely on imitation, R1 develops problem-solving abilities through experience. This leads to emergent behaviors – re-evaluating assumptions, backtracking, trying new approaches – that couldn't be learned through imitation alone.
The numbers are significant: 2.788 million GPU hours, using 2,048 NVIDIA H800 GPUs over two months, costing $6 million. Comparable models like Llama 3 405B required eleven times more compute. More importantly, these efficiency gains translate to lower API costs, making sophisticated AI accessible at much lower price points.
While large compute clusters remain valuable, optimization and efficiency now matter more than raw computational power. This shift opens possibilities for building competitive AI systems with fewer resources.
Additionally, DeepSeek open-sourced their breakthroughs. The massive compute infrastructure built up by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google can now be used more efficiently. Same compute, more intelligence. With these breakthroughs now public, optimization will cascade through the industry. Every AI lab can build on these foundations. Every training run can benefit from these insights. The future of advanced AI just moved much closer – not through more hardware, but through better algorithms available to all.
Current Tools
There are dozens of new AI agents popping up everywhere, each one leveraging increasingly intelligent base models. A few examples such as Bolt.new, Lovable.dev, Devin, Cursor or goose(Released today) are already incredibly powerful. As the base models improve, so too will every product that leverages them.
Bolt.new allows users to build out full-stack web applications from a simple, intuitive prompt interface. This is not just amazing for people who already know how to code, but amazing for people who have never had any experience building products. For these people, they can now express their ideas, and build out useful services without needing in-depth knowledge, or a team of developers.
Cursor is a new development environment build from scratch for AI assisted development This is already becoming one of the most popular IDE’s, and that is not looking to slow down.
Devin is a fully autonomous AI software engineer, which eventually will perform complex tasks autonomously. Devin is already capable of alot today, but by the end of this year, I would guess that devin will be much more capable.
Goose is a brand new Ai agent which is totally open-source. It allows you to use whatever base model you want, and it is truly in your hands. It can perform tasks similar to Bolt or Lovable, but with more flexibility.
It's Time to Build
The convergence of algorithmic breakthroughs and AI-powered development tools creates an unprecedented moment in history. As models become more efficient and development barriers fall, we're entering an era where individual builders can create impact at scale. The next wave of transformative AI products won't just come from tech giants – they'll emerge from developers and creators who recognize this unique window of opportunity.
Building has never been more accessible. Whether you're a seasoned developer or someone who's never written a line of code, the tools now exist to turn your ideas into reality. A restaurant owner can create a custom reservation system. A teacher can build personalized learning software. A healthcare worker can develop patient management tools. The technical barriers that once confined product development to a select few have crumbled. This democratization of building is why I am developing my own product called FlowAI.
The race for AGI will continue, but the real revolution is happening now, in the hands of everyday people who understand that the future isn't reserved for tech giants or AI researchers. It belongs to anyone with the courage to imagine and the determination to build. The tools are here, the barriers are down, and your ideas matter more than your background.
The window is open, and the time to build is now.
Sounds really cool Aaron. I look forward to hearing more about FlowAI.
Exciting times! Great work putting that all together