The Effect of Good Explanations
Reflections on Infinity pt 1
Introduction
Behind it all is surely an idea so simple, so beautiful, that when we grasp it – in a decade, a century, or a millennium – we will all say to each other, how could it have been otherwise?
- John Archibald Wheeler, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 480 (1986)
Deutsch, David. The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World (p. 1).
Today, I am beginning to read ‘The Beginning of Infinity” by David Deutsch. This book is very important, and It is not to be read lightly. I will be writing these posts as reflections on the ideas presented in the book, as to improve the depth in which I understand them.
Our explanations are not trivial.
Our ability to explain and understand the world around us determines the degree to which we can realize our dreams. Science, or the creation of good explanations, is the engine of progress that has propelled humanity to this point—with you sitting here, reading these words on a glowing device that would have either gotten you crucified or worshipped just a few hundred years ago.
It is difficult to feel the magic on the timescale of your life, but it is real, and it is profound. The only way to solve problems is through knowledge creation. The ideas behind The Beginning of Infinity are fundamental and profoundly useful. If everyone were to internalize just one of its principles, I believe it would be a tremendous victory for humanity.
although our night sky appears serene and largely changeless, the universe is seething with violent activity. Even a typical star converts millions of tonnes of mass into energy every second, with each gram releasing as much energy as an atom bomb.
Deutsch, David. The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World (p. 2).
In the opening pages of The Beginning of Infinity, Deutsch illustrates the immense scale of the universe through an unbroken, logical progression—exploring the power of stars, supernovae, black holes, quasars, and gamma-ray bursts, all leading up to the most significant event: the Big Bang. These events are not merely grand. They are incomprehensibly extreme, unleashing energy on a scale that dwarfs our sun by billions, if not trillions, of times.
The true wonder of these phenomena is not merely that they exist, but that we know they exist—and we know this with certainty, even without direct observation. But what does it really mean to see such events? The only way we can classify a flash of light in the night sky as a distant gamma-ray burst is through the framework of our explanations—our understanding of what a flash in the night sky might signify. After all, a flash of light is just a sensation. We are free to interpret it however we choose.
In the past, people lacked the theories we have today. Stars were only recently proven to be nuclear furnaces whereas in ancient times, they were believed to be divine beings or the light of heaven shining through. As Deutsch points out, however, there are objective ways to assess whether a theory is good or bad. Good theories make precise predictions about the world. Good theories are difficult to vary without altering their resulting predictions. Good theories have verifiable explanatory power.
One of the best examples of a bad theory comes from the Greek myth of the seasons. According to the myth, Persephone was abducted by Hades to be his queen in the underworld, causing her mother, Demeter—the goddess of harvest—to grieve and neglect the earth, leading to winter. Zeus mediated a deal allowing Persephone to return to the surface, but because she had eaten pomegranate seeds in the underworld, she was required to spend part of each year there. Her return brings spring and summer; her departure, autumn and winter.
This explanation appeals to our emotions and our fascination with the supernatural, but it is a bad theory for specific reasons. Firstly, it is easy to vary and lacks precise predictions. If the story were altered—if Persephone had eaten figs instead of pomegranate seeds, or if Hades had bargained for nine months of her presence instead of six—it would still "explain" the seasons just as easily. The details are arbitrary, interchangeable, and untethered to observable reality.
Moreover, no aspect of the myth would collapse if the number of seeds changed, nor does it specify why consuming underworld food binds Persephone to Hades, or how Demeter’s grief mechanistically translates into winter. The causal links are metaphorical, not testable.
Compare this to the scientific explanation for seasons: Earth’s axial tilt relative to its orbital plane creates cyclical variations in sunlight distribution. This theory makes precise, falsifiable predictions—e.g., seasonal reversals between hemispheres, predictable changes in day length, and correlations between latitude and climate patterns. If observations contradicted these predictions (e.g., if tropical regions experienced harsh winters or polar regions had hot summers), the theory would collapse. But the Persephone myth faces no such risk. It cannot be falsified because its "explanations" are unfalsifiable by design. The myth adapts to any observation: if winter arrived earlier, one could invent a subplot where Hades grew impatient; if a year lacked autumn, Demeter’s grief might be "temporarily eased." Its plasticity shields it from criticism.
The power of a theory is not in its ability to explain, but in its ability to predict.
This is the distinction between a good theory and a bad one. If a theory can accurately predict real phenomena with precision, it is good. If it cannot, it is less good. In this sense, because no theory predicts everything, none of our theories are completely correct. This is another key insight from the book:
all theories are inherently fallible. They are fallible to the extent that they fail to predict real-world phenomena.
Despite being only a few pages into this book, the depth, and universality of the ideas is really amazing. If there is one takeaway from this post that you can bring into your life, and everyday thinking it is this:
Theories are not subjective. They either predict reality or they don’t. Good theories propelled humanity to the top of the food chain, put humans on the moon, and the phone in your pocket. Bad theories, on the other hand, have no real power. They explain without predicting and have kept humanity trapped in superstition, stagnation, and false certainty.
Do not hold your beliefs on faith. Adopt theories that make precise, testable predictions that are difficult to vary. And when those predictions fail, be willing to change them. This applies to everything—your worldview, your work, your life. The best explanations have the power to change the world. Choose them wisely.
That’s all for this post. If it resonated with you, imagine what Deutsch’s full vision could do for your thinking. Read The Beginning of Infinity and start exploring his ideas yourself.